Iran’s Supreme Leader faces gravest challenge yet
By Vivian Ekoh
For nearly four decades, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has navigated internal dissent, economic crises and war, but the unprecedented strikes by Israel and the United States on Iran mark his greatest challenge yet.
What he decides next will have huge significance for Iran and the rest of the Middle East. But such is the cost of the assault. His options are few. It’s a huge test for an 86-year-old in declining health with no designated successor.
The extent of the damage inflicted on Khamenei’s regime remains uncertain, but it struck at the heart of its power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a key military force upholding the Islamic Revolution’s ideals, suffered the loss of a string of seasoned commanders. Iran’s nuclear facilities, where near-weapons-grade uranium was being enriched, were severely damaged, and key scientists driving the program’s advancement were assassinated.
Khamenei’s regional armed proxy groups were already severely weakened by Israeli attacks, and billions spent on his regime’s nuclear program were lost in 12 days – another economic wound at a time of sanctions and soaring inflation.
So penetrating were the Israeli strikes that Khamenei delivered his speeches during the conflict from an undisclosed location, signaling lingering concern over his safety. He was not among the hundreds of thousands attending nationwide funerals for the assassinated military commanders and nuclear scientists on Saturday.
And it was several days after the ceasefire took effect before the supreme leader delivered a defiant video message to the Iranian people.
“This president (Donald Trump) exposed that truth – he made clear that the Americans will only be satisfied with the total surrender of Iran, and nothing less,” Khamenei said. He also, predictably, declared victory over Israel and the US – a message that triggered a blunt response from Trump.
“Look, you’re a man of great faith, a man who’s highly respected in his country,” Trump said. “You have to tell the truth. You got beat to hell.”
Once a nimble leader who used political and economic maneuvering to secure his regime’s survival, the aging Khamenei now governs an eroding and rigid state. With uncertainty surrounding his succession, the state of his nuclear program, and the strength of his proxy groups, he faces a critical choice: rebuild the same regime or open up in a way that could threaten his hold on power.
